Global health and development interventions? Decreasing the risk of human extinction corresponds to saving human lives in worlds where human population would get to 0 without the intervention. If this changes the longterm value of the future, then I do not see why saving human lives for a larger population would not.
Animal welfare interventions? I estimate the room to improve wild animal welfare is 10.5 M (= 3.03*10^16/​(2.88*10^9)) times as large as that to improve human welfare. I think this suggests increasing wild animal welfare by 1 % would have a much greater effect on the longterm value of the future than increasing human welfare by 1 %.
How do you suggest decision-makers decide on the parameters of the model? It is very difficult to predict specifics of the future over a few decades from now, so I do not know how one can make informed choices about effects on the longterm value of the future.
Thanks for the post! I strongly upvoted it.
Are you planning to apply the framework to:
Global health and development interventions? Decreasing the risk of human extinction corresponds to saving human lives in worlds where human population would get to 0 without the intervention. If this changes the longterm value of the future, then I do not see why saving human lives for a larger population would not.
Animal welfare interventions? I estimate the room to improve wild animal welfare is 10.5 M (= 3.03*10^16/​(2.88*10^9)) times as large as that to improve human welfare. I think this suggests increasing wild animal welfare by 1 % would have a much greater effect on the longterm value of the future than increasing human welfare by 1 %.
How do you suggest decision-makers decide on the parameters of the model? It is very difficult to predict specifics of the future over a few decades from now, so I do not know how one can make informed choices about effects on the longterm value of the future.