I think the “evidence crowd” has done quite well. Remember that EA was founded on the “evidence crowd”. The crowd that didn’t request evidence gave us Play Pumps, whereas the crowd that did request evidence has saved thousands of lives through AMF.
This seems really hard to settle.
Arguably, all of medical research is in the non evidence crowd in the sense that they can’t have empirical evidence that a research program is going to work ahead of time. You can work out whether a medical intervention works later, but you have to invest hugely up front. Medical research has done an absolutely huge amount of good, far more than people focused on scaling up evidence-backed charity and government programs (so far).
Who’s done the most good doesn’t settle it. We want to know something more like who’s done the most good per unit of input. But even then the average biomedical research does pretty well.
You could also put all social movements in the non evidence crowd, including the end of slavery, expansion of the vote, civil rights etc. Likewise, all technological and political innovation.
Perhaps the odd playpump is worth it? And playpump isn’t a good example because sensible non-evidence people would rule it out as well. Looking at facts like how they cost 4x more than regular water pumps and the recipients didn’t want them should make anyone cautious about scaling them up, whether or not you’ve got an RCT.
In the meantime, I agree explore-exploit is a good approach. I’d also say being modest about which causes and methods are best. Expert common sense as a prior seems to be significant weight on things like research, politics, innovation, and social advocacy being major ways to make the world a better place. Finally, there’s looking for other arguments, such as considerations around neglectedness.
This seems really hard to settle.
Arguably, all of medical research is in the non evidence crowd in the sense that they can’t have empirical evidence that a research program is going to work ahead of time. You can work out whether a medical intervention works later, but you have to invest hugely up front. Medical research has done an absolutely huge amount of good, far more than people focused on scaling up evidence-backed charity and government programs (so far).
Who’s done the most good doesn’t settle it. We want to know something more like who’s done the most good per unit of input. But even then the average biomedical research does pretty well.
https://80000hours.org/career-guide/top-careers/profiles/biomedical-research/
You could also put all social movements in the non evidence crowd, including the end of slavery, expansion of the vote, civil rights etc. Likewise, all technological and political innovation.
Perhaps the odd playpump is worth it? And playpump isn’t a good example because sensible non-evidence people would rule it out as well. Looking at facts like how they cost 4x more than regular water pumps and the recipients didn’t want them should make anyone cautious about scaling them up, whether or not you’ve got an RCT.
In the meantime, I agree explore-exploit is a good approach. I’d also say being modest about which causes and methods are best. Expert common sense as a prior seems to be significant weight on things like research, politics, innovation, and social advocacy being major ways to make the world a better place. Finally, there’s looking for other arguments, such as considerations around neglectedness.