As you note, the next step is “what’s the robust evidence that AMF beats 2)”?
I think your response though is the right one overall.
It’s a difficult judgement call made with little evidence and we have to make our best bet.
I think people should be modest about their confidence in focusing on projects that look like 1), AMF, or 2). It wouldn’t take a lot of evidence to convince me one way or another, and I would advocate a mixed strategy between them among the community today.
By agnostic, I just mean thinking there’s a decent chance (10%+) any of these could be the best approach for someone, and so not using this difference as the key issue on which you judge projects.
By agnostic, I just mean thinking there’s a decent chance (10%+) any of these could be the best approach for someone, and so not using this difference as the key issue on which you judge projects.
That’s much more plausible than total neutrality! I agree that there’s no theoretical argument (that I know of) for thinking that (2) is very likely to be worse than AMF. So it all depends on what the best available candidates for (2) are. Perhaps people could make progress by discussing a real world example of (2). (Ideally this wouldn’t be an org anyone has ties to, to allow for especially neutral discussion of it.)
As you note, the next step is “what’s the robust evidence that AMF beats 2)”?
I think your response though is the right one overall.
It’s a difficult judgement call made with little evidence and we have to make our best bet.
I think people should be modest about their confidence in focusing on projects that look like 1), AMF, or 2). It wouldn’t take a lot of evidence to convince me one way or another, and I would advocate a mixed strategy between them among the community today.
By agnostic, I just mean thinking there’s a decent chance (10%+) any of these could be the best approach for someone, and so not using this difference as the key issue on which you judge projects.
That’s much more plausible than total neutrality! I agree that there’s no theoretical argument (that I know of) for thinking that (2) is very likely to be worse than AMF. So it all depends on what the best available candidates for (2) are. Perhaps people could make progress by discussing a real world example of (2). (Ideally this wouldn’t be an org anyone has ties to, to allow for especially neutral discussion of it.)