I think your piece is valuable as a summary of weaknesses in existing longtermist thinking, though I don’t agree with all your points or the ways you frame them.
Things that would make me excited to read future work, and IMO would make that work stronger:
Providing more concrete suggestions for improvement. Criticism is valuable, but I’m aware of many of the weaknesses of our frameworks; what I’m really hungry for is further work on solving them. This probably requires focusing down to specific areas, rather than casting a wide net as you did for this summary paper.
Engaging with the nuances of longtermist thinking on these subjects. For example, when you mention the importance of risk-factor assessment, I don’t see much engagement with e.g. the risk factor / threat / vulnerability model, or with the paper on defense in depth against AI risk. Neither of these models are perfect, but I expect they both have useful things to offer.
I expect this links up with the above point. Starting from a viewpoint of what-can-I-build encourages finding the strong points of prior work, rather than the weak points you focused on in this piece.
Thanks for sharing this, Zoe!
I think your piece is valuable as a summary of weaknesses in existing longtermist thinking, though I don’t agree with all your points or the ways you frame them.
Things that would make me excited to read future work, and IMO would make that work stronger:
Providing more concrete suggestions for improvement. Criticism is valuable, but I’m aware of many of the weaknesses of our frameworks; what I’m really hungry for is further work on solving them. This probably requires focusing down to specific areas, rather than casting a wide net as you did for this summary paper.
Engaging with the nuances of longtermist thinking on these subjects. For example, when you mention the importance of risk-factor assessment, I don’t see much engagement with e.g. the risk factor / threat / vulnerability model, or with the paper on defense in depth against AI risk. Neither of these models are perfect, but I expect they both have useful things to offer.
I expect this links up with the above point. Starting from a viewpoint of what-can-I-build encourages finding the strong points of prior work, rather than the weak points you focused on in this piece.