In July 2022, there still aren’t great forecasting systems that could deal with this problem. The closest might be Manifold Markets, which allows for the fast creation of different markets and the transfer of funds to charities, which gives some monetary value to their tokens. In any case, because setting up such a system might be laborious, one could instead just offer to set such a system up only upon request.
Manifold would be enthusiastic about setting up such a system for improving grant quality, through either internal or public prediction markets! Reach out (austin@manifold.markets) if you participate in any kind of grantmaking and would like to collaborate.
The primary blocker, in my view, is a lack of understanding on our team on how the grantmaking process operates—meaning we have less understanding of the the use case (and thus how to structure our product) than eg our normal consumer product. A few members of OpenPhil have previously spoken with us; we’d love to work more to understand how we could integrate.
A lesser blocker is the institutional lack of will to switch over to a mostly untested system. I think here “Prediction Markets in the Corporate Setting” is a little pessimistic wrt motives; my sense is that decisionmakers would happily delegate decisions, if the product felt “good enough”—so this kind of goes back to the above point.
Manifold would be enthusiastic about setting up such a system for improving grant quality, through either internal or public prediction markets! Reach out (austin@manifold.markets) if you participate in any kind of grantmaking and would like to collaborate.
The primary blocker, in my view, is a lack of understanding on our team on how the grantmaking process operates—meaning we have less understanding of the the use case (and thus how to structure our product) than eg our normal consumer product. A few members of OpenPhil have previously spoken with us; we’d love to work more to understand how we could integrate.
A lesser blocker is the institutional lack of will to switch over to a mostly untested system. I think here “Prediction Markets in the Corporate Setting” is a little pessimistic wrt motives; my sense is that decisionmakers would happily delegate decisions, if the product felt “good enough”—so this kind of goes back to the above point.