Do you know what the best research (or aggregated subjective beliefs) synthesis we have on the ‘costs of achieving policy change’...
perhaps differentiated by area
and by the economic magnitude of the policy?
My impressions was that Nuno’s
″ $2B to $20B, or 10x to 100x the amount that Open Philanthropy has already spent, would have a 1 to 10% chance of succeeding at that goal”
Seemed plausible, but I suspect that if they had said a 1-3% chance or a 10-50% chance, I might have found these equally plausible. (At least without other benchmarks).
@weeatquince and all:
Do you know what the best research (or aggregated subjective beliefs) synthesis we have on the ‘costs of achieving policy change’...
perhaps differentiated by area
and by the economic magnitude of the policy?
My impressions was that Nuno’s
″ $2B to $20B, or 10x to 100x the amount that Open Philanthropy has already spent, would have a 1 to 10% chance of succeeding at that goal”
Seemed plausible, but I suspect that if they had said a 1-3% chance or a 10-50% chance, I might have found these equally plausible. (At least without other benchmarks).