I agree that it is a decision to be made on a project-by-project basis, but you can still have some prior about what’s roughly the right thing to do in aggregate, and use that prior to assess if you’re clearly missing the mark. This may feel like an artificial or useless exercise, but in general it is how high-level strategy decisions are made. Perhaps we’re just talking around each other because we are on different abstraction levels—you’re perhaps imagining a grant maker asking “how should I achieve this outcome” while I’m imagining “what’s the right strategy for EA as a whole”?
Side note: In this case, 100% prizes would clearly be the wrong percentage. 0% prizes is likely too low, and the realistic range is maybe 1-20%, but I don’t know with higher precision than that. However the movement looks very different with 1% vs. 20%, and getting it right could matter quite a bit.
I agree that it is a decision to be made on a project-by-project basis, but you can still have some prior about what’s roughly the right thing to do in aggregate, and use that prior to assess if you’re clearly missing the mark. This may feel like an artificial or useless exercise, but in general it is how high-level strategy decisions are made. Perhaps we’re just talking around each other because we are on different abstraction levels—you’re perhaps imagining a grant maker asking “how should I achieve this outcome” while I’m imagining “what’s the right strategy for EA as a whole”?
Side note: In this case, 100% prizes would clearly be the wrong percentage. 0% prizes is likely too low, and the realistic range is maybe 1-20%, but I don’t know with higher precision than that. However the movement looks very different with 1% vs. 20%, and getting it right could matter quite a bit.