But for the first time, I don’t see any solid trend we can extrapolate to say it won’t happen soon.[11] AI R&D really could be automated this year.
What are your predictions for the unemployment rate of software engineers? What do you think about these reasons for potentially overestimating the pace of automation based on AI benchmarks?
But there’s a big problem here – if AIs are actually able to perform most tasks on 1-hour task horizons, why don’t we see more real-world task automation? For example, most emails take less than an hour to write, but crafting emails remains an important part of the lives of billions of people every day.
Some of this could be due to people underusing AI systems,[2] but in this post I want to focus on reasons that are more fundamental to the capabilities of AI systems. In particular, I think there are three such reasons that are the most important:
Hi Ajeya.
What are your predictions for the unemployment rate of software engineers? What do you think about these reasons for potentially overestimating the pace of automation based on AI benchmarks?