Cool stuff. Do you only leverage prediction markets, or do you also leverage prediction polls (e.g. Metaculus)? My sense of the research so far is that they tend to be similarly accurate with similar numbers of predictors, with perhaps a slight edge for prediction polls.
Thank you. Yes, I include Metaculus, GJ Open, etc. Also any forecasts made by top groups like Samotsvety, the Swift Centre, publicly available Superforecasts, etc.
Cool stuff. Do you only leverage prediction markets, or do you also leverage prediction polls (e.g. Metaculus)? My sense of the research so far is that they tend to be similarly accurate with similar numbers of predictors, with perhaps a slight edge for prediction polls.
Thank you. Yes, I include Metaculus, GJ Open, etc. Also any forecasts made by top groups like Samotsvety, the Swift Centre, publicly available Superforecasts, etc.