Not intended to be expressing a significantly shorter timeline; 15-30 years was supposed to be a range of “plausible/significant probability” which the previous model also said (probability on 15 years was >10% and probability on 30 years was 50%). Sorry that wasn’t clear!
(JTBC I think you could train a brain-sized model sooner than my median estimate for TAI, because you could train it on shorter horizon tasks.)
Not intended to be expressing a significantly shorter timeline; 15-30 years was supposed to be a range of “plausible/significant probability” which the previous model also said (probability on 15 years was >10% and probability on 30 years was 50%). Sorry that wasn’t clear!
(JTBC I think you could train a brain-sized model sooner than my median estimate for TAI, because you could train it on shorter horizon tasks.)