WilliamKiely comments on My Most Likely Reason to Die Young is AI X-Risk

[WilliamKiely]

I made this same point a couple months ago—happy to hear more people pointing it out:

Spencer Greenberg:

A question for you: if you knew for a fact that you were going to die exactly 10 years from now, how would you change your current behavior?

My answer:

I’d tell everyone because presumably it would mean people should strongly update their credence of human extinction in 10 years, e.g. from something like 0.5%-2% to 10%-50%, since the current probability that I die as part of an extinction event in exactly 10 years time (assuming I die then in some event) is approximately 10-50%.