Great post! Thanks for writing it! I’m not great at probability so just trying to understand the methodology.
The cumulative probability of death should always sum up to 100% and P(Death|AGI) + P(Death|OtherCauses) = 100% (100% here being 100% of P(Death) i.e. all causes of death should be accounted for in P(Death) as opposed to 100% being equal to P(Death) + P(Life) sorry for the ambiguous wording ), so to correct for this would you scale natural death down as P(Death|AGI) increases i.e P(Death|OtherCauses) = (100-P(Death|AGI)) * Unscaled P(Death|OtherCauses)?(This assumes P(Death|OtherCauses) already sums up to 100 but maybe it doesn’t?).
I expect the standard deviation of P(Death|AGI) to be much higher than P(Death|Other) since AGI doesn’t exist yet. What’s the best way to take this into account?
If you happen to have data on this, could you add an additional series with other Global Catastrophic Risks taken into account? It would be nice to see how risk of death from AGI compares with other GCRs that are already possible. I’d expect intuitively the standard deviation of other GCRs that exist to be lower.
Great post! Thanks for writing it! I’m not great at probability so just trying to understand the methodology.
The cumulative probability of death should always sum up to 100% and P(Death|AGI) + P(Death|OtherCauses) = 100% (100% here being 100% of P(Death) i.e. all causes of death should be accounted for in P(Death) as opposed to 100% being equal to P(Death) + P(Life) sorry for the ambiguous wording ), so to correct for this would you scale natural death down as P(Death|AGI) increases i.e P(Death|OtherCauses) = (100-P(Death|AGI)) * Unscaled P(Death|OtherCauses)?(This assumes P(Death|OtherCauses) already sums up to 100 but maybe it doesn’t?).
I expect the standard deviation of P(Death|AGI) to be much higher than P(Death|Other) since AGI doesn’t exist yet. What’s the best way to take this into account?
If you happen to have data on this, could you add an additional series with other Global Catastrophic Risks taken into account? It would be nice to see how risk of death from AGI compares with other GCRs that are already possible. I’d expect intuitively the standard deviation of other GCRs that exist to be lower.