To expand on this, the difference between core GWWC (and various layers of the core) and marginal GWWC appears to be a fundamental issue here. In response to a long thread in the other post were people were worrying about GWWC’s expansion at some point hitting lower than 1:1 fundraising ratios, Peter put it succinctly:
I agree that GWWC’s ratio is probably above 1 with a good deal of confidence (though I haven’t done the formal math to evaluate how extreme that statement is). But I think the more compelling argument is that expansion funding on the margin may not have a ratio above 1.
And I expanded:
Yes, there’s a huge, huge difference between the impact of GWWC existing as a place where people who wanted to pledge 10% of their income to help those living in global poverty could join others in publicly doing so, and the impact of its marginal funded activities now. GWWC existed as that place before The Centre for Effective Altruism was founded around it as an organisation with donors and a budget supporting paid employees. If minimal resources were spent on creating the basic infrastructure, and I don’t know if that’s so, but if so, then it had a mega high impact ratio. But it seems wrong to use that to justify keeping on spending more money on more employees doing more marginal projects until the impact from the original resource gets “used up.”
Ok this is all fair. I think, however, that a big fraction of the historical impact is due to on-going activity, of the kind that could continue, rather than being all due to the ‘set up’ generating the stream. And that would mean the historical ratio is a reasonable guide to the future.
This can be hard to see from the outside, but if you look at where new pledgers are coming from, it’s often new press coverage or student group activity. Many also only take the pledge after being nudged by someone in person, even if they had heard about GWWC some time before, so there’s an important role just talking to lots of people about the pledge. These kinds of activities can be scaled much further.
To expand on this, the difference between core GWWC (and various layers of the core) and marginal GWWC appears to be a fundamental issue here. In response to a long thread in the other post were people were worrying about GWWC’s expansion at some point hitting lower than 1:1 fundraising ratios, Peter put it succinctly:
And I expanded:
I replied in the other thread: http://effective-altruism.com/ea/hz/please_support_giving_what_we_can_this_spring/
That reply:
Continues at http://effective-altruism.com/ea/hz/please_support_giving_what_we_can_this_spring/3vw