I have not read much of Tetlock’s research, so I could be mistaken, but isn’t the evidence for Tetlock-style forecasting only for (at best) short-medium term forecasts? Over this timescale, I would’ve expected forecasting to be very useful for non-EA actors, so the central puzzle remains. Indeed, if there is not evidence for long-term forecasting, then wouldn’t one expect non-EA actors (who place less importance on the long-term) to be at least as likely as EAsuse this style of forecasting?
Of course, it would be hard to gather evidence for forecasting working well over longer (say, 10+ year) forecasts, so perhaps I’m expecting too much evidence. But it’s not clear to me that we should have strong theoretical reasons to think that this style of forecasting would work particularly well, given how “cloud-like” predicting events over long time horizons is and how with further extrapolation there might be more room for bias.
I have not read much of Tetlock’s research, so I could be mistaken, but isn’t the evidence for Tetlock-style forecasting only for (at best) short-medium term forecasts? Over this timescale, I would’ve expected forecasting to be very useful for non-EA actors, so the central puzzle remains. Indeed, if there is not evidence for long-term forecasting, then wouldn’t one expect non-EA actors (who place less importance on the long-term) to be at least as likely as EAs use this style of forecasting?
Of course, it would be hard to gather evidence for forecasting working well over longer (say, 10+ year) forecasts, so perhaps I’m expecting too much evidence. But it’s not clear to me that we should have strong theoretical reasons to think that this style of forecasting would work particularly well, given how “cloud-like” predicting events over long time horizons is and how with further extrapolation there might be more room for bias.