Hard to say but I think at this point we have to take note of why Clinton and her emails were perceived so badly. The idea was that there was real corruption in the government. Sexist remarks in the workplace are a known quantity, whereas a private unsecured email server is a kind of rabbit hole.
I definitely don’t deny that it could hurt him, my view is just that trying to aggregate and compare these concerns across all the candidates with their respective foibles doesn’t lead one to any substantive conclusions.
But now you are making me worry more that perhaps a woman will accuse him of sexual assault. With Mike’s locker room talk, and him being an old oligarch, there is cause for worry about him in particular. These accusations often follow people who are rising in the public conscience. Bloomberg was already famous before now and subject to sexism controversy, but not as much as he will be if he gets nominated, and his political career had apparently stopped by the time the #MeToo campaign started. You would expect a victim to come forward earlier while he was initially rising in the primary polls, but since he’s a late entrant who has been absent from debates, I wouldn’t be too confident about that. Bernie and Biden have been top political figures for a long time, so there is no appreciable risk with them. Pete’s gay and young. Warren’s a woman.
Adding a 1% probability of sexual assault accusations after the nomination causing Mike to lose against Trump, his campaign score drops from 8 to 6, putting him close to Pete. So I’m less enthusiastic about him now, but I don’t think this is yet enough to change the recommendations. (I will think more about it though.)
Hard to say but I think at this point we have to take note of why Clinton and her emails were perceived so badly. The idea was that there was real corruption in the government. Sexist remarks in the workplace are a known quantity, whereas a private unsecured email server is a kind of rabbit hole.
I definitely don’t deny that it could hurt him, my view is just that trying to aggregate and compare these concerns across all the candidates with their respective foibles doesn’t lead one to any substantive conclusions.
But now you are making me worry more that perhaps a woman will accuse him of sexual assault. With Mike’s locker room talk, and him being an old oligarch, there is cause for worry about him in particular. These accusations often follow people who are rising in the public conscience. Bloomberg was already famous before now and subject to sexism controversy, but not as much as he will be if he gets nominated, and his political career had apparently stopped by the time the #MeToo campaign started. You would expect a victim to come forward earlier while he was initially rising in the primary polls, but since he’s a late entrant who has been absent from debates, I wouldn’t be too confident about that. Bernie and Biden have been top political figures for a long time, so there is no appreciable risk with them. Pete’s gay and young. Warren’s a woman.
Adding a 1% probability of sexual assault accusations after the nomination causing Mike to lose against Trump, his campaign score drops from 8 to 6, putting him close to Pete. So I’m less enthusiastic about him now, but I don’t think this is yet enough to change the recommendations. (I will think more about it though.)