I personally don’t think we can expect orgs to “make accurate predictions”, it’s just too hard.
I’d instead aim to have the org share their best guess often, including “here is our uncertainty” (not as a number, but as something they know better, like “we don’t know if our previous product, X, will be adopted quickly or need a lot of changes”).
Or some other method that as a manager you’d want to use with an employee.
+1 to “not giving any estimates doesn’t solve the problem”, just like it wouldn’t if you’d be a manager and your employee would stop giving estimates
I personally don’t think we can expect orgs to “make accurate predictions”, it’s just too hard.
I’d instead aim to have the org share their best guess often, including “here is our uncertainty” (not as a number, but as something they know better, like “we don’t know if our previous product, X, will be adopted quickly or need a lot of changes”).
Or some other method that as a manager you’d want to use with an employee.
+1 to “not giving any estimates doesn’t solve the problem”, just like it wouldn’t if you’d be a manager and your employee would stop giving estimates