Thanks for the detailed response and taking the time once again.
You keep suggesting that “you had a feeling” about the impact. What does this mean? I guess it’s more than just a feeling like seeing how much money or lives or DALY’s what your doing counterfactualy adds.
I didn’t do cost-effectiveness estimates for each of the activity I tried but I had a feeling of how such estimates would have turned out if I tried to do them. There is nothing special about this, everyone has such intuitions. E.g., organizing EA events in Lithuania was stressful and required a lot of work. Despite that, I felt that few if any people will change anything based on what I said to them. I felt that the main accomplishment was possibly convincing one person to donate something like $2,000 a year to AMF rather than to some other charity. In contrast, after writing one article, I felt that there was a decent chance that animal advocates might help millions or billions of animals that otherwise would not have been helped. Writing that article took less time and was less stressful than organizing EA events in Lithuania. Based on stuff like this, I decided that I should write articles. Note that someone who had a better personal fit for being a community builder and worse fit for being a researcher might have had an opposite experience. But this kind of stuff is also based on luck so the evidence that experimenting provides is not conclusive.
Thanks for the detailed response and taking the time once again.
You keep suggesting that “you had a feeling” about the impact. What does this mean? I guess it’s more than just a feeling like seeing how much money or lives or DALY’s what your doing counterfactualy adds.
I didn’t do cost-effectiveness estimates for each of the activity I tried but I had a feeling of how such estimates would have turned out if I tried to do them. There is nothing special about this, everyone has such intuitions. E.g., organizing EA events in Lithuania was stressful and required a lot of work. Despite that, I felt that few if any people will change anything based on what I said to them. I felt that the main accomplishment was possibly convincing one person to donate something like $2,000 a year to AMF rather than to some other charity. In contrast, after writing one article, I felt that there was a decent chance that animal advocates might help millions or billions of animals that otherwise would not have been helped. Writing that article took less time and was less stressful than organizing EA events in Lithuania. Based on stuff like this, I decided that I should write articles. Note that someone who had a better personal fit for being a community builder and worse fit for being a researcher might have had an opposite experience. But this kind of stuff is also based on luck so the evidence that experimenting provides is not conclusive.
I would appreciate an explanation, when you downvote something. Thanks. :)