In a world in which people used the ITN as a way to do Fermi estimates of impact, I would have written “ITN isn’t the only way to do Fermi estimates of impact”, but my experience is that people don’t use it this way. I have almost never seen an ITN analysis with a conclusion which looks like “therefore, good doneadditional resources is roughly X lives per dollars” (which is what I care about). But I agree that “Fermi estimates vs ITN” isn’t a good title either: what I argue for is closer to “Fermi estimates (including ITN_as_a_way_to_Fermi_estimate, which sometimes is pretty useful) vs ITN_people_do_in_practice”.
This roughly lines up with what I had in mind!
In a world in which people used the ITN as a way to do Fermi estimates of impact, I would have written “ITN isn’t the only way to do Fermi estimates of impact”, but my experience is that people don’t use it this way. I have almost never seen an ITN analysis with a conclusion which looks like “therefore, good doneadditional resources is roughly X lives per dollars” (which is what I care about). But I agree that “Fermi estimates vs ITN” isn’t a good title either: what I argue for is closer to “Fermi estimates (including ITN_as_a_way_to_Fermi_estimate, which sometimes is pretty useful) vs ITN_people_do_in_practice”.
Ok, got it. I’m curious — how do you see people using ITN in practice? (If not for making and comparing estimates of good doneadditional resources?)
Also this post may be relevant!