In the abstract, yes, I would trade 10,000 years for 0.001% reduction in XR.
In practice, I think the problem with this kind of Pascal Mugging argument is that it’s really hard to know what a 0.001% reduction looks like, and really easy to do some fuzzy Fermi estimate math. If someone were to say “please give me one billion dollars, I have this really good idea to prevent XR by pursuing Strategy X”, they could probably convince me that they have at least a 0.001% chance of succeeding. So my objections to really small probabilities are mostly practical.
Good to hear!
In the abstract, yes, I would trade 10,000 years for 0.001% reduction in XR.
In practice, I think the problem with this kind of Pascal Mugging argument is that it’s really hard to know what a 0.001% reduction looks like, and really easy to do some fuzzy Fermi estimate math. If someone were to say “please give me one billion dollars, I have this really good idea to prevent XR by pursuing Strategy X”, they could probably convince me that they have at least a 0.001% chance of succeeding. So my objections to really small probabilities are mostly practical.