Claim 1: If there is a large group of people trying to answer a question correctly, and they are trying (almost) as hard as you to answer it correctly, any consensus of theirs is more likely to be correct than you.
In general, I think the consensus of a group of experts is more accurate than that of the most knowledgable person or the whole crowd. However, the optimal size of the group of experts depends on the specific question, and it may often be much smaller than one thinks. From Mannes 2014:
Through both simulation and an analysis of 90 archival data sets, we show that select crowds of 5 knowledgeable judges yield very accurate judgments across a wide range of possible settings—the strategy is both accurate and robust.
Hi Michael,
Nice post!
In general, I think the consensus of a group of experts is more accurate than that of the most knowledgable person or the whole crowd. However, the optimal size of the group of experts depends on the specific question, and it may often be much smaller than one thinks. From Mannes 2014: