An existential risk is a one-shot scenario for humanity. We are the single participant. There is no larger portfolio to average out the 99.9% chance of failure
But there may well be a large portfolio of actions we can take to reduce existential risk. In most cases there are many shots we can take.
That’s an interesting point about the portfolio of actions. You’re suggesting that while the existential risk itself is a one-shot scenario for humanity, we might be able to take multiple ‘shots’ at reducing it. In essence, you’re proposing that if a single, highly uncertain intervention isn’t reliable, we can average out the risk by attempting many such interventions.
However, this then shifts the problem, rather than solving it. Even if we could, in theory, take a ‘thousand shots’ at reducing x-risk, we still lack a robust framework for comparing the aggregated expected value of these highly speculative, low-probability interventions against the more certain, smaller-scale interventions. My original argument is precisely that our current EV tools are inadequate for such comparisons, especially when dealing with epistemic uncertainty and truly one-shot, high-stakes scenarios for which a ‘portfolio’ approach might still be an insufficient or unproven solution.
But there may well be a large portfolio of actions we can take to reduce existential risk. In most cases there are many shots we can take.
That’s an interesting point about the portfolio of actions. You’re suggesting that while the existential risk itself is a one-shot scenario for humanity, we might be able to take multiple ‘shots’ at reducing it. In essence, you’re proposing that if a single, highly uncertain intervention isn’t reliable, we can average out the risk by attempting many such interventions.
However, this then shifts the problem, rather than solving it. Even if we could, in theory, take a ‘thousand shots’ at reducing x-risk, we still lack a robust framework for comparing the aggregated expected value of these highly speculative, low-probability interventions against the more certain, smaller-scale interventions. My original argument is precisely that our current EV tools are inadequate for such comparisons, especially when dealing with epistemic uncertainty and truly one-shot, high-stakes scenarios for which a ‘portfolio’ approach might still be an insufficient or unproven solution.