A lucid illustration of this conundrum would involve preventing the demise of an approaching infinite number of individuals with a probability approaching zero (p→0). Apprehension concerning infinitesimal risks, even when associated with an astronomically vast scale of impact, is illogical. The improbable nature of an event’s occurrence should not be mitigated by the magnitude of its potential harm.
Consider a scenario where, for a single dollar, one is offered a lottery ticket providing the chance to win a sum of 10^100 with a probability of 10^(−99). Superficially, an Expected Value (EV) calculation might suggest this to be a favorable transaction. However, any discerning individual would intuitively recognize that participating in such a lottery will, with near certainty, result in the loss of their investment. The probability of winning is infinitesimally small, and unless an exceptionally large quantity of tickets is purchased, one is virtually guaranteed to incur a loss.
A lucid illustration of this conundrum would involve preventing the demise of an approaching infinite number of individuals with a probability approaching zero (p→0). Apprehension concerning infinitesimal risks, even when associated with an astronomically vast scale of impact, is illogical. The improbable nature of an event’s occurrence should not be mitigated by the magnitude of its potential harm.
Consider a scenario where, for a single dollar, one is offered a lottery ticket providing the chance to win a sum of 10^100 with a probability of 10^(−99). Superficially, an Expected Value (EV) calculation might suggest this to be a favorable transaction. However, any discerning individual would intuitively recognize that participating in such a lottery will, with near certainty, result in the loss of their investment. The probability of winning is infinitesimally small, and unless an exceptionally large quantity of tickets is purchased, one is virtually guaranteed to incur a loss.