“In any attempt to do good, not actual consequences, but Expected Value matters.”
You ascribe probabilities to outcomes of your actions in your expected value model of your actions.
Accordingly, the altruism of the consequences of your actions is only certain in your mind when you believe that you know the actual consequences.
You might believe that you only know the actual consequences:
through retrodiction (understanding your actions’ past consequences from a present perspective).
through prediction (having certainty about your actions’ future consequences).
through observation (observing the consequences occur)
through a thought experiment (you’ll never know the real consequences of your actions).
through control (controlling what happens through your actions).
through real-time involvement (interacting with what happens as it occurs during your actions).
by some other mechanism (for example, moralist prescriptions of specific actions and predictions of consequences).
Do you believe that you do good for others through your actions before you believe that you know the actual consequences of those actions?
Do you believe that some actions you choose among cause good consequences at the time that you choose among them?
If you hold those beliefs, then why do Expected Value calculations matter to your doing good for others?
“In any attempt to do good, not actual consequences, but Expected Value matters.”
You ascribe probabilities to outcomes of your actions in your expected value model of your actions.
Accordingly, the altruism of the consequences of your actions is only certain in your mind when you believe that you know the actual consequences.
You might believe that you only know the actual consequences:
through retrodiction (understanding your actions’ past consequences from a present perspective).
through prediction (having certainty about your actions’ future consequences).
through observation (observing the consequences occur)
through a thought experiment (you’ll never know the real consequences of your actions).
through control (controlling what happens through your actions).
through real-time involvement (interacting with what happens as it occurs during your actions).
by some other mechanism (for example, moralist prescriptions of specific actions and predictions of consequences).
Do you believe that you do good for others through your actions before you believe that you know the actual consequences of those actions?
Do you believe that some actions you choose among cause good consequences at the time that you choose among them?
If you hold those beliefs, then why do Expected Value calculations matter to your doing good for others?