what are your arguments against the claim that: “It is too late for organized degrowth because climate change is now driven by intrinsic feedbacks as well as anthropogenic GHG’s. Change in both GDP and GHG production will depend primarily on global response to ongoing climate and ecological disasters. Population control will drive itself, through massive suffering and death caused by climate disasters and a change in public sentiment toward conceiving children, or just living, under much worse conditions than now.”
You seem to want degrowth, and I agree with you, it’s the only honest option, frankly, but you’re looking at the climate change aspect through a model of GAST temperature rises driven solely by anthropogenic GHGs. I just want to know why.
Nanotechnology was popularized by Eric Drexler in his old book “Engines of Creation”. His visions of nanotechnology fit the techno-optimists bill for rescue from climate change (in ways that current proposals for BECCS and DACCS technology do not). In particular, nanotechnology manufacturing offers hope of extremely rapid large-scale in-place manufacturing suitable for all sorts of climate and pollution mitigation technologies tested and adopted over very short time frames.
You’re looking for some hope and cheer. Seen from this perspective, nanotech offers it. There might be other problems associated with its use, but realizing its full vision would give humanity tools to solve most environmental problems rapidly.
Decoupling food supply from farmland seems an important step to ensure the survival of the current human population, depending on the impacts of climate change or the 6th great extinction that you consider too soon, too fast, or too big to prevent.
There are many possibilities, I favor nutrition that does not require: * refrigeration * high-moisture content * cooking
In particular, powdered drinks or crisps, vacuum-sealed single-use dissolving oil packs, and liquid extracts of vegies and fruit (when those are available). You add water to the powdered drinks.
You’re probably familiar with fermentation technology used to make milk proteins, do you have an opinion about the technology? I heard a few mentions about it recently, including a potential commercial milk product based on the technology.
Broadly, the 1.5C ceiling on GAST temperature rise was thought to be low enough to avoid climate tipping points. Obviously, it is not. Given your research on climate change to date, when do you think the arctic will be ice-free in the summer, all other things equal?
Let me note that governments are making plans for an ice-free arctic rather than looking to prevent the ice loss. There’s talk of fishing, drilling, shipping lanes, and military movements in arctic waters once the ice is gone.
You covered a lot of areas with that doughnut chart. The scenarios involved are more complex when you factor in multiple forcings, and their results are more negative than a first attempt might capture. For example, sticking with climate change, California megaflood frequency is expected to rise this century, driven by global warming.
A megaflood from an atmospheric river covering California for several weeks would create an inland sea, flood cities built on flood plains( like LA), and cut off critical transit routes. Death by dehydration or starvation could occur.
California might lose most of its population to migration or other causes during a megaflood. California megafloods might occur too frequently to make large-scale resettlement of the state feasible or attractive.
In such a scenario, what are the knock-on effects of that flood? California is a big economy on its own, and a major food grower. It would create a pollution disaster across the state, destroy most California infrastructure, wipe out Silicon Valley businesses, disrupt internet and power delivery in other areas, lead to production losses in some industries, kill some people, and force most people to leave (if they can) as the rains continue, provided the state or the feds can help in the event of a megaflood, not a sure thing.
Interestingly, California is also vulnerable to mega-tsunami’s, but those occur less frequently than megafloods, and afaik, their frequency is not affected by climate change.
You did a lot of work to explore the area of green growth vs degrowth, have you thought about turning your attention to scenarios like large-scale weather disasters and specifics to prepare for them? I would be interested.
On the topic of the 6th great extinction, you should have some specific thoughts, as a biologist. Have you seen techno-optimism about how to restore an ecosystem sufficient to support at least a few million people with species that are no longer present?
There’s a pathway through which humanity does its best to help ecosystems restore themselves. The scenario is plausible but the devil is in the details. Do you believe that the completion of the 6th great extinction is inevitable? Can it be reversed?
Assuming something happened like a large drop in ocean biomass within a relatively short period, say a decade, what could be done to limit its impact on terrestrial ecosystems? Could we bring back the plankton without removing atmospheric CO2?
I asked a lot here, I don’t expect you to address it all, of course, just whatever you’d like.
Thank you for your points and questions. 1. I focus only on anthropogenic GHG simply because despite feedback loops being also very important, it’d be too much off-topic. 2. That’d be great! 3-6. Unfortunately, I don’t know enough about the topics to say anything valuable, but interesting points.
Interesting post, here’s a few thoughts:
what are your arguments against the claim that:
“It is too late for organized degrowth because climate change is now driven by intrinsic feedbacks as well as anthropogenic GHG’s. Change in both GDP and GHG production will depend primarily on global response to ongoing climate and ecological disasters. Population control will drive itself, through massive suffering and death caused by climate disasters and a change in public sentiment toward conceiving children, or just living, under much worse conditions than now.”
You seem to want degrowth, and I agree with you, it’s the only honest option, frankly, but you’re looking at the climate change aspect through a model of GAST temperature rises driven solely by anthropogenic GHGs. I just want to know why.
Nanotechnology was popularized by Eric Drexler in his old book “Engines of Creation”. His visions of nanotechnology fit the techno-optimists bill for rescue from climate change (in ways that current proposals for BECCS and DACCS technology do not). In particular, nanotechnology manufacturing offers hope of extremely rapid large-scale in-place manufacturing suitable for all sorts of climate and pollution mitigation technologies tested and adopted over very short time frames.
You’re looking for some hope and cheer. Seen from this perspective, nanotech offers it. There might be other problems associated with its use, but realizing its full vision would give humanity tools to solve most environmental problems rapidly.
Decoupling food supply from farmland seems an important step to ensure the survival of the current human population, depending on the impacts of climate change or the 6th great extinction that you consider too soon, too fast, or too big to prevent.
There are many possibilities, I favor nutrition that does not require:
* refrigeration
* high-moisture content
* cooking
In particular, powdered drinks or crisps, vacuum-sealed single-use dissolving oil packs, and liquid extracts of vegies and fruit (when those are available). You add water to the powdered drinks.
You’re probably familiar with fermentation technology used to make milk proteins, do you have an opinion about the technology? I heard a few mentions about it recently, including a potential commercial milk product based on the technology.
Broadly, the 1.5C ceiling on GAST temperature rise was thought to be low enough to avoid climate tipping points. Obviously, it is not. Given your research on climate change to date, when do you think the arctic will be ice-free in the summer, all other things equal?
Let me note that governments are making plans for an ice-free arctic rather than looking to prevent the ice loss. There’s talk of fishing, drilling, shipping lanes, and military movements in arctic waters once the ice is gone.
You covered a lot of areas with that doughnut chart. The scenarios involved are more complex when you factor in multiple forcings, and their results are more negative than a first attempt might capture. For example, sticking with climate change, California megaflood frequency is expected to rise this century, driven by global warming.
A megaflood from an atmospheric river covering California for several weeks would create an inland sea, flood cities built on flood plains( like LA), and cut off critical transit routes. Death by dehydration or starvation could occur.
California might lose most of its population to migration or other causes during a megaflood. California megafloods might occur too frequently to make large-scale resettlement of the state feasible or attractive.
In such a scenario, what are the knock-on effects of that flood? California is a big economy on its own, and a major food grower. It would create a pollution disaster across the state, destroy most California infrastructure, wipe out Silicon Valley businesses, disrupt internet and power delivery in other areas, lead to production losses in some industries, kill some people, and force most people to leave (if they can) as the rains continue, provided the state or the feds can help in the event of a megaflood, not a sure thing.
Interestingly, California is also vulnerable to mega-tsunami’s, but those occur less frequently than megafloods, and afaik, their frequency is not affected by climate change.
You did a lot of work to explore the area of green growth vs degrowth, have you thought about turning your attention to scenarios like large-scale weather disasters and specifics to prepare for them? I would be interested.
On the topic of the 6th great extinction, you should have some specific thoughts, as a biologist. Have you seen techno-optimism about how to restore an ecosystem sufficient to support at least a few million people with species that are no longer present?
There’s a pathway through which humanity does its best to help ecosystems restore themselves. The scenario is plausible but the devil is in the details. Do you believe that the completion of the 6th great extinction is inevitable? Can it be reversed?
Assuming something happened like a large drop in ocean biomass within a relatively short period, say a decade, what could be done to limit its impact on terrestrial ecosystems? Could we bring back the plankton without removing atmospheric CO2?
I asked a lot here, I don’t expect you to address it all, of course, just whatever you’d like.
Thanks for your excellent post, by the way!
Thank you for your points and questions.
1. I focus only on anthropogenic GHG simply because despite feedback loops being also very important, it’d be too much off-topic.
2. That’d be great!
3-6. Unfortunately, I don’t know enough about the topics to say anything valuable, but interesting points.