It still means that there is a 2.76% chance that you and everybody you love will be dead in the next 15 years.
The below taildistributions of the annual conflict and epidemic/​pandemic deaths as a fraction of the global population suggest human extinction is orders of magnitude less likely than 10 % of the human population dying in 1 year. Do you think it is basically certain that the human population in 2040 (= 2025 + 15) will be lower than in 2025? If not, how do you justify the tail distribution of AI risk being so different than those from conflict and pandemic risk, considering these are major pathways via which AI risk can be expressed? @Peter Wildeford, I would be curious to know your thoughts too.
Thanks for the post, Liam.
The below tail distributions of the annual conflict and epidemic/​pandemic deaths as a fraction of the global population suggest human extinction is orders of magnitude less likely than 10 % of the human population dying in 1 year. Do you think it is basically certain that the human population in 2040 (= 2025 + 15) will be lower than in 2025? If not, how do you justify the tail distribution of AI risk being so different than those from conflict and pandemic risk, considering these are major pathways via which AI risk can be expressed? @Peter Wildeford, I would be curious to know your thoughts too.