I think these are visually appealing graphics and they can help emphasize the importance of existential risks as well as illustrate the basic concept of [average expected impact = probability X magnitude]. My main concern with them is that it seems like they could be a bit too reductionist: for any given event/risk, you can imagine it as having multiple possible outcomes each with their own probabilities of occurring and magnitude. For example, a given pandemic may have a 10% chance of occurring in a given time period, and if it does occur, it may have a 20% chance of killing 1M people, a 10% chance of killing 5M people, 1% chance of killing 100M people, and a 0.1% chance of killing ~7B people. To represent that, you would basically need to create a curve (probability X impact distribution) for each event instead of a rectangle.
Additionally, there is the issue about interactive effects of catastrophes—e.g., a given pandemic or a given nuclear exchange may not individually lead to extinction or total civilizational collapse, but it might be the case that together they have a very high chance of doing that.
I think these are visually appealing graphics and they can help emphasize the importance of existential risks as well as illustrate the basic concept of [average expected impact = probability X magnitude]. My main concern with them is that it seems like they could be a bit too reductionist: for any given event/risk, you can imagine it as having multiple possible outcomes each with their own probabilities of occurring and magnitude. For example, a given pandemic may have a 10% chance of occurring in a given time period, and if it does occur, it may have a 20% chance of killing 1M people, a 10% chance of killing 5M people, 1% chance of killing 100M people, and a 0.1% chance of killing ~7B people. To represent that, you would basically need to create a curve (probability X impact distribution) for each event instead of a rectangle.
Additionally, there is the issue about interactive effects of catastrophes—e.g., a given pandemic or a given nuclear exchange may not individually lead to extinction or total civilizational collapse, but it might be the case that together they have a very high chance of doing that.
Thank you for your comment!
Yes! This is actually the third open question at the end of the post. I’d be very curious to see such a curve, if anyone wants to make one.
I really like your second point, and wonder how the interactive effects you mention could be represented graphically.