I think this kind of argument is broadly true (though the true magnitude of the effect is, as you say, very uncertain), but I think it’s important to note that these kinds of arguments also apply to politicians, administrators, and the police.
If you could reasonably predict that incidents like this would lead to mass protests (which you could, because it’s happened before), and that this could result in a severe increase in the number of pandemic deaths, then you have a duty (even more so than usual) to make sure this does not happen. As an administrator, you should put extra pressure on police to make sure these incidents don’t take place. As a police officer, you should take extra care that it doesn’t happen on your watch, and that your colleagues know what the kinds of consequences could be. As a politician, you should be making it clear that if something like this happens, heads will very quickly roll.
(Of course, all these people should have been doing this anyway, because incidents like this are a profound moral stain on American institutions. You could reasonably argue that if these groups were receptive to these kinds of arguments, they wouldn’t be causing these incidents in the first place. But even given the status quo, everyone in law enforcement and administration should have been taking extra super special care right now.)
I think this kind of argument is broadly true (though the true magnitude of the effect is, as you say, very uncertain), but I think it’s important to note that these kinds of arguments also apply to politicians, administrators, and the police.
If you could reasonably predict that incidents like this would lead to mass protests (which you could, because it’s happened before), and that this could result in a severe increase in the number of pandemic deaths, then you have a duty (even more so than usual) to make sure this does not happen. As an administrator, you should put extra pressure on police to make sure these incidents don’t take place. As a police officer, you should take extra care that it doesn’t happen on your watch, and that your colleagues know what the kinds of consequences could be. As a politician, you should be making it clear that if something like this happens, heads will very quickly roll.
(Of course, all these people should have been doing this anyway, because incidents like this are a profound moral stain on American institutions. You could reasonably argue that if these groups were receptive to these kinds of arguments, they wouldn’t be causing these incidents in the first place. But even given the status quo, everyone in law enforcement and administration should have been taking extra super special care right now.)