In an earlier Twitter thread, Trevor Bedford says “my rough guess would be that an infected individual would on average transmit to one further individual each day in the protest setting” — so I think he was using 0.9/0.95 as the R0 to estimate the impact of the protests. https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395234762285056 But I don’t think this is a safe assumption and I’m concerned that the R0 might be significantly higher than ~1 in a mass gathering.
In an earlier Twitter thread, Trevor Bedford says “my rough guess would be that an infected individual would on average transmit to one further individual each day in the protest setting” — so I think he was using 0.9/0.95 as the R0 to estimate the impact of the protests. https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395234762285056 But I don’t think this is a safe assumption and I’m concerned that the R0 might be significantly higher than ~1 in a mass gathering.
In any case, the most reliable modeling I’ve seen (and that Trevor cites) estimates that the current overall background R0 in the U.S. is already back above 1. :/ https://covid19-projections.com/#current-us-projections
Thanks Juan, I hadn’t seen that most recent R0 estimate you link to—concerning.