A model where you think x-risk in the next few decades is a very important problem but that donating to non-x-risk charities now is the most impactful use of money seems weird to me. Even if x-risk work isn’t constrained by money at the moment, it seems likely that could change between now and the global catastrophe. For example, unless you are confident in a fast AI takeoff there will probably be a time in the future where it’s much more effective to lobby for regulation than it is now (because it will be easier to do and easier to know what regulation is helpful).
It is quite likely that you’re right! I think it’s just something that should be explicitly thought about, it seems like an uncertainty that wasn’t really noticed. If x-risk is in the next few decades, some of the money currently directed to the interventions fighting deaths and suffering might be allocated to charities that do it better.
A model where you think x-risk in the next few decades is a very important problem but that donating to non-x-risk charities now is the most impactful use of money seems weird to me. Even if x-risk work isn’t constrained by money at the moment, it seems likely that could change between now and the global catastrophe. For example, unless you are confident in a fast AI takeoff there will probably be a time in the future where it’s much more effective to lobby for regulation than it is now (because it will be easier to do and easier to know what regulation is helpful).
It is quite likely that you’re right! I think it’s just something that should be explicitly thought about, it seems like an uncertainty that wasn’t really noticed. If x-risk is in the next few decades, some of the money currently directed to the interventions fighting deaths and suffering might be allocated to charities that do it better.