In particular, superforecasters are generally more sceptical of such short AI timelines.
Note that this is true only of some subset of superforecasters. Samotsvety’s forecasters (many of whom are superforecasters) have shortertimelines than both domain experts and general x-risk experts:
Thank you for this helpful response, Pablo! This is a really interesting result to note. I was not aware of this when writing my post, but I’ll plan to include Samotsvety forecast results in future work on this subject, and when I come to write up my findings more formally.
Note that this is true only of some subset of superforecasters. Samotsvety’s forecasters (many of whom are superforecasters) have shorter timelines than both domain experts and general x-risk experts:
Thank you for this helpful response, Pablo! This is a really interesting result to note. I was not aware of this when writing my post, but I’ll plan to include Samotsvety forecast results in future work on this subject, and when I come to write up my findings more formally.