Veganuary has ācalculated that roughly 25 million people worldwide chose to try vegan this January [by participaing in Veganuary in 2024]ā. Do you have a guess for the reduction in the consumption of animal-based foods linked to those 25 M people caused by all Veganuaryās activities in 2024, including corporate engagement, and effects in years after 2024, as a fraction of what their (counterfactual) consumption of animal-based foods in 2024 without Veganuary? I guess 1.5 % (= (0.03 + 0)/ā2), corresponding to an effect size decreasing from 3 % to 0 over 1 year. I suppose an initial reduction of 3 % because Seth mentioned the studies you analysed showed āchanges on the order of a few percentage pointsā, and I guess these concern a short time period.
Thanks, Seth. I wonder whether you are underestimating your own implicit knowledge. Would you be indifferent between my guess of 1.5 % and alternatives guesses of 0.015 % and 150 % (the value can be higher than 100 % because there could be effects after 2024)? Feel free to provide a range for the expected reduction if that helps.
My implicit knowledge on the topic of knowledge production (rather than of veganuary) is that rosy results like the one you are citing often do not stand up to scrutiny. Maya raised one very salient objection to a gap between the headline interpretation and the data of a past iteration of this work here.
I believe that if I dig into it, Iāll find other, similar issues.
Veganuary has ācalculated that roughly 25 million people worldwide chose to try vegan this January [by participaing in Veganuary in 2024]ā. Do you have a guess for the reduction in the consumption of animal-based foods linked to those 25 M people caused by all Veganuaryās activities in 2024, including corporate engagement, and effects in years after 2024, as a fraction of what their (counterfactual) consumption of animal-based foods in 2024 without Veganuary? I guess 1.5 % (= (0.03 + 0)/ā2), corresponding to an effect size decreasing from 3 % to 0 over 1 year. I suppose an initial reduction of 3 % because Seth mentioned the studies you analysed showed āchanges on the order of a few percentage pointsā, and I guess these concern a short time period.
I donāt know, sorry. There would be a lot of additional assumptions needed to extrapolate from the RCTs we analyze to this.
Thanks, Seth. I wonder whether you are underestimating your own implicit knowledge. Would you be indifferent between my guess of 1.5 % and alternatives guesses of 0.015 % and 150 % (the value can be higher than 100 % because there could be effects after 2024)? Feel free to provide a range for the expected reduction if that helps.
My implicit knowledge on the topic of knowledge production (rather than of veganuary) is that rosy results like the one you are citing often do not stand up to scrutiny. Maya raised one very salient objection to a gap between the headline interpretation and the data of a past iteration of this work here.
I believe that if I dig into it, Iāll find other, similar issues.
Sorry for such a meta answerā¦