Thanks, thatās a good observationāyouāre right that this is a permissive operationalisation. I actually deliberately did that to be more ācharitableā to Edenāto say, āAI winter seems pretty unlikely even on these pretty conservative assumptionsā, but I should probably have flagged that more clearly. I agree that there are some scenarios where a 50% drawdown happens but thereās no real winter worthy of the name.
Another way of putting this is, I thought Iād get pushback along the lines of āthis is way too bullish on AI progressā (and I did get some of that, but not a lot), and instead got lots of pushback in the form of āthis is way too bullish on AI winterā. (Not talking about the EA forum here, but other places.)
I think a more likely outcome is a kind of āAI autumnā: Investment keeps coming at a steady rate, and lots and lots of people are using AI for the things itās good at, but the number of advancements slows significantly, and certain problems prove intractable, and the hype dies down. I think weāve already seen this process happen for Autonomous Vehicles. I think this scenario is very likely.
Agree that this is a live possibility. (But I also donāt think thereās been a 50% drawdown in autonomous driving investment, so I donāt think my operationalisation fails there.)
Thanks, thatās a good observationāyouāre right that this is a permissive operationalisation. I actually deliberately did that to be more ācharitableā to Edenāto say, āAI winter seems pretty unlikely even on these pretty conservative assumptionsā, but I should probably have flagged that more clearly. I agree that there are some scenarios where a 50% drawdown happens but thereās no real winter worthy of the name.
Another way of putting this is, I thought Iād get pushback along the lines of āthis is way too bullish on AI progressā (and I did get some of that, but not a lot), and instead got lots of pushback in the form of āthis is way too bullish on AI winterā. (Not talking about the EA forum here, but other places.)
Agree that this is a live possibility. (But I also donāt think thereās been a 50% drawdown in autonomous driving investment, so I donāt think my operationalisation fails there.)