Note that I also made five Manifold Markets questions to also help evaluate my PA election model (Harris and Trump means and SDs) and the claim that PA is ~35% likely to be decisive.
(Note: I accidentally resolved my Harris questions (#4 & #5) to the range of 3,300,000-3,399,999 rather than 3,400,000-3,499,999. Hopefully the mods will unresolve and correct this for me per my comments on the questions.)
This exercise wasn’t too useful as there weren’t enough other people participating in the markets to significantly move the prices from my initial beliefs. But I suppose that’s evidence that they didn’t think I was significantly wrong.
Note that I also made five Manifold Markets questions to also help evaluate my PA election model (Harris and Trump means and SDs) and the claim that PA is ~35% likely to be decisive.
Will Pennsylvania be decisive in the 2024 Presidential Election?
How many votes will Donald Trump receive in Pennsylvania? (Set)
How many votes will Donald Trump receive in Pennsylvania? (Multiple Choice)
How many votes will Kamala Harris receive in Pennsylvania? (Set)
How many votes will Kamala Harris receive in Pennsylvania? (Multiple Choice)
(Note: I accidentally resolved my Harris questions (#4 & #5) to the range of 3,300,000-3,399,999 rather than 3,400,000-3,499,999. Hopefully the mods will unresolve and correct this for me per my comments on the questions.)
This exercise wasn’t too useful as there weren’t enough other people participating in the markets to significantly move the prices from my initial beliefs. But I suppose that’s evidence that they didn’t think I was significantly wrong.