I haven’t looked at your math, but I actually agree, in the sense that I also got about 1 in 1 million when doing the estimate again a week before the election!
I think my 1 in 3 million estimate was about right at the time that I made it. The information that we gained between then and 1 week before the election was that the election remained close, and that Pennsylvania remained the top candidate for the tipping point state.
The information that we gained between then and 1 week before the election was that the election remained close
I’m curious if by “remained close” you meant “remained close to 50/50″?
(The two are distinct, and I was guilty of pattern-matching “~50/50” to “close” even though ~50/50 could have meant that either Trump or Harris was likely to win by a lot (e.g. swing all 7 swing states) and we just had no idea which was more likely.)
I haven’t looked at your math, but I actually agree, in the sense that I also got about 1 in 1 million when doing the estimate again a week before the election!
I think my 1 in 3 million estimate was about right at the time that I made it. The information that we gained between then and 1 week before the election was that the election remained close, and that Pennsylvania remained the top candidate for the tipping point state.
I’m curious if by “remained close” you meant “remained close to 50/50″?
(The two are distinct, and I was guilty of pattern-matching “~50/50” to “close” even though ~50/50 could have meant that either Trump or Harris was likely to win by a lot (e.g. swing all 7 swing states) and we just had no idea which was more likely.)