Executive summary: A recent peer-reviewed study suggests that the cooling effect and catastrophic risk of volcanic super-eruptions may be significantly lower than previously estimated, due to the relationship between the injected mass of sulfur dioxide and the resulting aerosol particle size.
Key points:
The study found that larger volcanic eruptions produce larger aerosol particles, which have less cooling effect per unit mass than smaller particles.
Accounting for this relationship, the study estimates that global volcanic cooling is unlikely to exceed 1.5°C, even for the most massive eruptions.
The author calculates a near-term annual human extinction risk from supervolcanoes of 3.38*10^-14, much lower than some previous estimates.
The author argues that interventions to reduce volcanic risk should be evaluated based on standard cost-benefit analysis, rather than focusing on potential extinction risk.
The author compares their extinction risk estimates to Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates from The Precipice, finding Ord’s estimates to be much higher for several risks including supervolcanoes.
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Executive summary: A recent peer-reviewed study suggests that the cooling effect and catastrophic risk of volcanic super-eruptions may be significantly lower than previously estimated, due to the relationship between the injected mass of sulfur dioxide and the resulting aerosol particle size.
Key points:
The study found that larger volcanic eruptions produce larger aerosol particles, which have less cooling effect per unit mass than smaller particles.
Accounting for this relationship, the study estimates that global volcanic cooling is unlikely to exceed 1.5°C, even for the most massive eruptions.
The author calculates a near-term annual human extinction risk from supervolcanoes of 3.38*10^-14, much lower than some previous estimates.
The author argues that interventions to reduce volcanic risk should be evaluated based on standard cost-benefit analysis, rather than focusing on potential extinction risk.
The author compares their extinction risk estimates to Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates from The Precipice, finding Ord’s estimates to be much higher for several risks including supervolcanoes.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.