Am I confident that someone born in 2024 can’t grow to be 242cm? Nope. I just don’t trust the statistical modeling all that much. (If you disagree and are willing to offer 1,000,000:1 odds on this question, I’ll probably be willing to bet on it).
I do not want to take this bet, but I am open to other suggestions. For example, I think it is very unlikely that transformative AI, as defined in Metaculus, will happen in the next few years.
I do not want to take this bet, but I am open to other suggestions. For example, I think it is very unlikely that transformative AI, as defined in Metaculus, will happen in the next few years.