Worth pointing out some academics think the parameters used in the Imperial model was too negative based on real world data we have. See Bill Gates’s take on it:
Fortunately it appears the parameters used in that model were too negative. The experience in China is the most critical data we have. They did their “shut down” and were able to reduce the number of cases. They are testing widely so they see rebounds immediately and so far there have not been a lot. They avoided widespread infection. The Imperial model does not match this experience. Models are only as good as the assumptions put into them. People are working on models that match what we are seeing more closely and they will become a key tool. A group called Institute for Disease Modelling that I fund is one of the groups working with others on this. ~ Bill Gates from his Reddit AMA
Worth pointing out some academics think the parameters used in the Imperial model was too negative based on real world data we have. See Bill Gates’s take on it: