This seems like a really powerful tool to have in one’s cognitive toolbox when considering allocating EA resources. I have two questions on evaluating concrete opportunities.
First, if I can state what I take to be the idea (if I have this wrong, then probably both of my questions are based on understanding): we can move resources from lower-need (i.e. the problem continues as default or improves) to higher-need situations (i.e. the problem gets worse) by investing in instruments that will be doing well if the problem is getting worse (which because of efficient markets is balanced by the expectation they will be doing poorly if the problem is improving).
You mention the possibility that for some causes, the dynamics of the cause progression might mean hedging fails (like fast takeoff AI). Is another possible issue that some problems might unlock more funding as they get worse? For example, dramatic results of climate change might increase funding to fight it sufficiently early. While the possibility of this happening could just be taken to undermine the serious of the cause (“we will sort it out when it gets bad enough”), if different worsenings unlock different amounts of funding for the same badness, the cause could still be important. So should we focus on instruments that get more valuable when the problem gets worse AND the funding doesn’t get better?
My other question was on retirement saving. When pursuing earning-to-give, doesn’t it make more sense just to pursue straight expected value? If you think situations in which you don’t have a job will be particularly bad, you should just be hedging those situations anyway. Couldn’t you just try and make the most expected money, possibly storing some for later high-value interventions that become available?
Thank you for sharing this research! I will consider it when making investment decisions.
This seems like a really powerful tool to have in one’s cognitive toolbox when considering allocating EA resources. I have two questions on evaluating concrete opportunities.
First, if I can state what I take to be the idea (if I have this wrong, then probably both of my questions are based on understanding): we can move resources from lower-need (i.e. the problem continues as default or improves) to higher-need situations (i.e. the problem gets worse) by investing in instruments that will be doing well if the problem is getting worse (which because of efficient markets is balanced by the expectation they will be doing poorly if the problem is improving).
You mention the possibility that for some causes, the dynamics of the cause progression might mean hedging fails (like fast takeoff AI). Is another possible issue that some problems might unlock more funding as they get worse? For example, dramatic results of climate change might increase funding to fight it sufficiently early. While the possibility of this happening could just be taken to undermine the serious of the cause (“we will sort it out when it gets bad enough”), if different worsenings unlock different amounts of funding for the same badness, the cause could still be important. So should we focus on instruments that get more valuable when the problem gets worse AND the funding doesn’t get better?
My other question was on retirement saving. When pursuing earning-to-give, doesn’t it make more sense just to pursue straight expected value? If you think situations in which you don’t have a job will be particularly bad, you should just be hedging those situations anyway. Couldn’t you just try and make the most expected money, possibly storing some for later high-value interventions that become available?
Thank you for sharing this research! I will consider it when making investment decisions.