Executive summary: Arguments against anti-fanaticism suggest we should reject it in favor of permissivism, since anti-fanaticism violates highly plausible principles or requires implausible modifications to expected utility theory.
Key points:
Anti-fanaticism states there is a positive probability and level of good such that a guarantee of that good is always preferred over a gamble, no matter the potential upside.
Generalized anti-fanaticism better captures realistic choices about existential risk mitigation, using small shifts in intermediate probabilities rather than binary gambles.
Generalized anti-fanaticism is incompatible with the extremely plausible principles of no best/worst outcomes, minimal dominance, and acyclicity.
Attempted modifications to expected utility theory to satisfy anti-fanaticism—Compact EU and Quantile Discounting—give up other highly plausible principles.
Permissivism allows incomplete preferences between gambles and guarantees, avoiding both fanaticism and anti-fanaticism.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: Arguments against anti-fanaticism suggest we should reject it in favor of permissivism, since anti-fanaticism violates highly plausible principles or requires implausible modifications to expected utility theory.
Key points:
Anti-fanaticism states there is a positive probability and level of good such that a guarantee of that good is always preferred over a gamble, no matter the potential upside.
Generalized anti-fanaticism better captures realistic choices about existential risk mitigation, using small shifts in intermediate probabilities rather than binary gambles.
Generalized anti-fanaticism is incompatible with the extremely plausible principles of no best/worst outcomes, minimal dominance, and acyclicity.
Attempted modifications to expected utility theory to satisfy anti-fanaticism—Compact EU and Quantile Discounting—give up other highly plausible principles.
Permissivism allows incomplete preferences between gambles and guarantees, avoiding both fanaticism and anti-fanaticism.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.