In my opinion that post was bizarrely low quality and off base, and not worth engaging with: EA beliefs do not necessarily imply that the market will drop (I personally think a lot of the risk comes from worlds where AI is wildly profitable and drives a scary competitive race but where companies are making a LOT of money), lots of EAs have finance backgrounds or are successful hedge fund workers earning to give so his claim that no EAs understand finance is spurious, this definitely IS something some EAs have spent a while thinking about, even if we did have a thesis converting it to a profitable trade is hard and has many foot guns, and some of us have better things to do with our time than optimising our portfolio
For what it’s worth, my guess is that the best trade is going long volatility, since my beliefs about AI do imply that the world is going to get weird fairly quickly even if I don’t know exactly how.
In my opinion that post was bizarrely low quality and off base, and not worth engaging with: EA beliefs do not necessarily imply that the market will drop (I personally think a lot of the risk comes from worlds where AI is wildly profitable and drives a scary competitive race but where companies are making a LOT of money), lots of EAs have finance backgrounds or are successful hedge fund workers earning to give so his claim that no EAs understand finance is spurious, this definitely IS something some EAs have spent a while thinking about, even if we did have a thesis converting it to a profitable trade is hard and has many foot guns, and some of us have better things to do with our time than optimising our portfolio
For what it’s worth, my guess is that the best trade is going long volatility, since my beliefs about AI do imply that the world is going to get weird fairly quickly even if I don’t know exactly how.