I agree with Tyler Cowen that it’s hard to predict what will happen, although my argument has a (not mega important) nuance that his blog post doesn’t have, namely that the difficulty of predictions is increasing.
A (more important) difference is that I don’t commit what Scott Alexander calls the Safe Uncertainty Fallacy. I’ve encountered that argument a lot with climate sceptics for many years, and have found it infuriating how it’s simultaneously a very bad argument and yet can be made to sound sensible.
This reminds me a bit of Tyler Cowen’s take (but glad for your last paragraph!). I think Scott Alexander’s response to Cowen is good.
I agree with Tyler Cowen that it’s hard to predict what will happen, although my argument has a (not mega important) nuance that his blog post doesn’t have, namely that the difficulty of predictions is increasing.
A (more important) difference is that I don’t commit what Scott Alexander calls the Safe Uncertainty Fallacy. I’ve encountered that argument a lot with climate sceptics for many years, and have found it infuriating how it’s simultaneously a very bad argument and yet can be made to sound sensible.