As I argue in section 2, MacAskill’s priors argument relies on formulating 3H [Hinge of Hisory Hypothesis] in a way that does not conform to how this hypothesis is traditionally understood.
In agreement with section 2 of Mogensen 2022, the self-sampling assumption (SSA) says the prior probability of being the most influential person among a population of size N, comprising past, present and future people, is the expected value of 1/N (not the reciprocal of the expected value of N [which is what Will used]).
Using the expected value of 1/N, I estimated the prior probabilty of this being the most important century is less than 0.987 %, whereas Will’s formulation would have resulted into less than 10^-18 (much lower!).
Thanks for sharing!
To elaborate:
Using the expected value of 1/N, I estimated the prior probabilty of this being the most important century is less than 0.987 %, whereas Will’s formulation would have resulted into less than 10^-18 (much lower!).