Thank you for weighing in! I appreciate your perspective.
”Normal technology” really invokes a sense of, well, normal technology — smartphones, Internet, apps, autocorrect, Google, recommender algorithms on YouTube and Netflix, that sort of thing.
You raised an interesting question about tool AI vs. agent AI, but then you also (rather helpfully!) answered your own question. Arvind seems to be imagining a steady, gradual, continuous, relatively slower (compared to, say, Metaculus, but not what I’d necessarily call “slow” without qualification) path to agentic AGI, or something with very much AGI-like capabilities, like the ability to autonomously run a whole company without human input.
I was imagining that the “normal technology” AIs he was imagining in the not-too-distant future would be agentic and mostly autonomous, only asking for human feedback occasionally. But I don’t know for sure what Arvind has in mind.
Really it would be nice if Arvind could weigh in on what he thinks and try to paint us a more vivid picture of what he’s imagining. The more I get into these kinds of discussions, the more I realize people just imagine completely different things based on the same descriptions of hypothetical future AI systems. I think we have work to do getting clear on what we’re talking about as we keep having these discussions moving forward.
Thank you for weighing in! I appreciate your perspective.
”Normal technology” really invokes a sense of, well, normal technology — smartphones, Internet, apps, autocorrect, Google, recommender algorithms on YouTube and Netflix, that sort of thing.
You raised an interesting question about tool AI vs. agent AI, but then you also (rather helpfully!) answered your own question. Arvind seems to be imagining a steady, gradual, continuous, relatively slower (compared to, say, Metaculus, but not what I’d necessarily call “slow” without qualification) path to agentic AGI, or something with very much AGI-like capabilities, like the ability to autonomously run a whole company without human input.
I was imagining that the “normal technology” AIs he was imagining in the not-too-distant future would be agentic and mostly autonomous, only asking for human feedback occasionally. But I don’t know for sure what Arvind has in mind.
Really it would be nice if Arvind could weigh in on what he thinks and try to paint us a more vivid picture of what he’s imagining. The more I get into these kinds of discussions, the more I realize people just imagine completely different things based on the same descriptions of hypothetical future AI systems. I think we have work to do getting clear on what we’re talking about as we keep having these discussions moving forward.