Executive summary: While rising opportunity costs from economic growth have driven fertility declines, recent data shows a U-shaped relationship between income and fertility, suggesting that further growth can reverse low birthrates and enable a sustainable future.
Key points:
The standard theory attributes fertility decline to rising opportunity costs from economic growth, posing a bind between progress and sustainability.
However, micro data shows a U-shaped relationship between income and fertility, with the highest earners having more children than middle incomes.
Macro cross-country data also shows the income-fertility relationship reversing from negative to positive as countries develop.
A key mechanism is that time dedicated to labor does not forever increase with productivity; people work less and raise more children after reaching a comfortable income.
Pro-growth policies that raise incomes can therefore increase fertility, resolving the tradeoff between development and birthrates.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: While rising opportunity costs from economic growth have driven fertility declines, recent data shows a U-shaped relationship between income and fertility, suggesting that further growth can reverse low birthrates and enable a sustainable future.
Key points:
The standard theory attributes fertility decline to rising opportunity costs from economic growth, posing a bind between progress and sustainability.
However, micro data shows a U-shaped relationship between income and fertility, with the highest earners having more children than middle incomes.
Macro cross-country data also shows the income-fertility relationship reversing from negative to positive as countries develop.
A key mechanism is that time dedicated to labor does not forever increase with productivity; people work less and raise more children after reaching a comfortable income.
Pro-growth policies that raise incomes can therefore increase fertility, resolving the tradeoff between development and birthrates.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.