Concerns about model uncertainty cut in both directions and I think the preponderance of probabilities favours SAI (provided it can be governed safely)
Good point. Agreed. Had not considered this
I tend to deflate their significance because SAI has natural analogues… volcanoes … industrial emissions.
This seems like flawed thinking to me. Data from natural analogues should be built into predictive SAI models. Accepting that model uncertainty is a factor worth considering means questioning whether these analogues are actually good predictors of the full effects of SAI.
(Note: LHC also had natural analogues in atmospheric cosmic rays, I believe this was accounted for in FHI’s work on the matter)
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I think the main thing that model uncertainty suggests is that mitigation or less extreme forms of geoengineering should be prioritised much more.
SAI has advantages that other approaches don’t have, which is why it is insurance against model uncertainty about the sensitivity of the climate to GHGs. Carbon dioxide removal is much slower acting, will be incredibly expensive and has other costs. The other main proposed form of solar geoengineering involves tropospheric cooling by brightening clouds etc. Uncertainties about this are probably greater than for SAI.
Good point. Agreed. Had not considered this
This seems like flawed thinking to me. Data from natural analogues should be built into predictive SAI models. Accepting that model uncertainty is a factor worth considering means questioning whether these analogues are actually good predictors of the full effects of SAI.
(Note: LHC also had natural analogues in atmospheric cosmic rays, I believe this was accounted for in FHI’s work on the matter)
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I think the main thing that model uncertainty suggests is that mitigation or less extreme forms of geoengineering should be prioritised much more.
I agree that mitigation should be prioritised.
SAI has advantages that other approaches don’t have, which is why it is insurance against model uncertainty about the sensitivity of the climate to GHGs. Carbon dioxide removal is much slower acting, will be incredibly expensive and has other costs. The other main proposed form of solar geoengineering involves tropospheric cooling by brightening clouds etc. Uncertainties about this are probably greater than for SAI.