technological development proceeds from the time of this writing (in 2020) for another decade. Cures for pathologies like Alzheimerās, diabetes, and heart disease are discovered. New strategies for preventing large-scale outbreaks of infectious disease are developed, and life expectancy around the world increases to 95 years old. The human population stabilizes at around 8 billion peopleā¦ But at the end of this decade, technological progress stalls permanently: the conditions realized at the end of the decade are the conditions that hold for the next 1 billion years, at which point Earth becomes uninhabitable due to the sunās growing luminosity. Nonetheless, many trillions and trillions of humans will come to exist in these conditions, with more opportunities for self-actualization than ever before. (pp. 13-14)
I agree that this is not an existential catastrophe, at least on timescales of less than a billion years, provided that humanity is not permanently prevented from leaving Earth. To me, an āexistential catastropheā is an event that causes humanityās welfare or the quality of its moral values to permanently fall far below present-day levels, e.g. to pre-industrial levels. At most, Iād be disappointed if technology plateaued at a level above the present dayās technological progress.
However, Iād consider it an existential catastrophe if humanity permanently lost the ability to settle outer space, because that would make our eventual extinction inevitable.
I agree that this is not an existential catastrophe, at least on timescales of less than a billion years, provided that humanity is not permanently prevented from leaving Earth. To me, an āexistential catastropheā is an event that causes humanityās welfare or the quality of its moral values to permanently fall far below present-day levels, e.g. to pre-industrial levels. At most, Iād be disappointed if technology plateaued at a level above the present dayās technological progress.
However, Iād consider it an existential catastrophe if humanity permanently lost the ability to settle outer space, because that would make our eventual extinction inevitable.