I basically agree with Linch’s answer, and just want to add that a futarchy-like system (or even, likely, coherent use of prediction markets) would require a lot of management/organizational support (in addition to subsidization, probably, to push back against thin markets), and management/operations already seems like a current bottleneck in EA.
(I’m also unconvinced that EA is the best place to kickstart something like using prediction markets, since people in EA are presumably already incentivized to make decisions that are likely to produce good outcomes and to share information they feel is relevant to those decisions. The strength of futarchy is (in theory) channeling private monetary/profit incentives towards common values or a kind of communal good, so it makes more sense outside of communities that are inherently allied under a common project. I might be quite wrong, though, and would be interested in possible counter-arguments.
On a similar note, my understanding is that Hanson considers medium to large and private companies as the ideal place to kickstart the use of prediction markets, with the idea that eventually, the techniques developed as prediction markets are used and improved in that sphere can also be used for direct public benefit.)
I basically agree with Linch’s answer, and just want to add that a futarchy-like system (or even, likely, coherent use of prediction markets) would require a lot of management/organizational support (in addition to subsidization, probably, to push back against thin markets), and management/operations already seems like a current bottleneck in EA.
(I’m also unconvinced that EA is the best place to kickstart something like using prediction markets, since people in EA are presumably already incentivized to make decisions that are likely to produce good outcomes and to share information they feel is relevant to those decisions. The strength of futarchy is (in theory) channeling private monetary/profit incentives towards common values or a kind of communal good, so it makes more sense outside of communities that are inherently allied under a common project. I might be quite wrong, though, and would be interested in possible counter-arguments.
On a similar note, my understanding is that Hanson considers medium to large and private companies as the ideal place to kickstart the use of prediction markets, with the idea that eventually, the techniques developed as prediction markets are used and improved in that sphere can also be used for direct public benefit.)