Thanks for raising this point. We think that choosing the right decision theory that can handle imprecise probabilities is a complex issue that has not been adequately resolved. We take the point that Mogensen’s conclusions have radical implications for the EA community at large and we haven’t formulated a compelling story about where Mogensen goes wrong. However, we also believe that there are likely to be solutions that will most likely avoid those radical implications, and so we don’t need to bracket all of the cause prioritization work until we find them. Our tools may only be useful to those who see there to be work done on cause prioritization.
As a practical point, our Cross-Cause Cost-Effectiveness Model handles precise probabilities with Monte Carlo methods by randomly selecting individual values for parameters in each outcome from a distribution. We noted hesitance about enforcing a specific distribution over our range of radical uncertainty, but we stand behind this as a reasonable choice given our pragmatic aims. If the alternative is not to try to calculate relative expected values, we think that would be a loss, even if our own results have methodological doubts still attached to them.
Thanks for raising this point. We think that choosing the right decision theory that can handle imprecise probabilities is a complex issue that has not been adequately resolved. We take the point that Mogensen’s conclusions have radical implications for the EA community at large and we haven’t formulated a compelling story about where Mogensen goes wrong. However, we also believe that there are likely to be solutions that will most likely avoid those radical implications, and so we don’t need to bracket all of the cause prioritization work until we find them. Our tools may only be useful to those who see there to be work done on cause prioritization.
As a practical point, our Cross-Cause Cost-Effectiveness Model handles precise probabilities with Monte Carlo methods by randomly selecting individual values for parameters in each outcome from a distribution. We noted hesitance about enforcing a specific distribution over our range of radical uncertainty, but we stand behind this as a reasonable choice given our pragmatic aims. If the alternative is not to try to calculate relative expected values, we think that would be a loss, even if our own results have methodological doubts still attached to them.