One of the big prioritization changes I’ve taken away from our tools is within longtermism. Playing around with our Cross-Cause Cost-Effectiveness Model, it was clear to me that so much of the expected value of the long-term future comes from the direction we expect it to take, rather than just whether it happens at all. If you can shift that direction a little bit, it makes a huge difference to overall value. I no longer think that extinction risk work is the best kind of intervention if you’re worried about the long-term future. I tend to think that AI (non-safety) policy work is more impactful in expectation, if we worked through all of the details.
One of the big prioritization changes I’ve taken away from our tools is within longtermism. Playing around with our Cross-Cause Cost-Effectiveness Model, it was clear to me that so much of the expected value of the long-term future comes from the direction we expect it to take, rather than just whether it happens at all. If you can shift that direction a little bit, it makes a huge difference to overall value. I no longer think that extinction risk work is the best kind of intervention if you’re worried about the long-term future. I tend to think that AI (non-safety) policy work is more impactful in expectation, if we worked through all of the details.