Also seems important to note: EA investing should have not only different expectations about the world but also different goals about the point of finance. We are relatively less interested in moving money from worlds where we’re rich to worlds where we’re poor (the point of risk aversion) and more interested in moving it from worlds where it’s less useful to where it’s more useful.
Concretely: if it turns out we’re wrong about AI, this is a huge negative update on the usefulness of money to buy impact, since influencing this century’s development generally becomes much less important. So even if we think the stocks are accurately priced, we probably want to bet a lot of money on the market being surprised in the direction of AI being huge and timelines being short, because if those are true, money would be extremely useful, and it’s potentially worth giving up a lot of money in worlds where it’s false.
(Edited to add: even more concretely, this means that stocks correlated to AI progress are underpriced for us even if they’re not underpriced for a typical investor, and in particular riskier assets correlated to AI progress like options on AI/semiconductor/datacenter stocks are likely especially underpriced for our preferences. Also n.b. by “our preferences” I mean as donors—I’m talking about the overall longtermist portfolio, not making investment advice for any individuals.)
Also seems important to note: EA investing should have not only different expectations about the world but also different goals about the point of finance. We are relatively less interested in moving money from worlds where we’re rich to worlds where we’re poor (the point of risk aversion) and more interested in moving it from worlds where it’s less useful to where it’s more useful.
Concretely: if it turns out we’re wrong about AI, this is a huge negative update on the usefulness of money to buy impact, since influencing this century’s development generally becomes much less important. So even if we think the stocks are accurately priced, we probably want to bet a lot of money on the market being surprised in the direction of AI being huge and timelines being short, because if those are true, money would be extremely useful, and it’s potentially worth giving up a lot of money in worlds where it’s false.
(Edited to add: even more concretely, this means that stocks correlated to AI progress are underpriced for us even if they’re not underpriced for a typical investor, and in particular riskier assets correlated to AI progress like options on AI/semiconductor/datacenter stocks are likely especially underpriced for our preferences. Also n.b. by “our preferences” I mean as donors—I’m talking about the overall longtermist portfolio, not making investment advice for any individuals.)